We Need This Employment Report – Ultimate Deciding Factor to Recovery
Certainly the economic reports coming out are giving investors a greater feeling about the end of the recession. Durable goods orders were solid, as was consumer spending and real estate was icing on the cake. After two days of consolidation on Thursday and Friday it is obvious that investors don’t mind taking quick profits, and they’ll continue to do so unless they have reason to buy.
Wall Street expects an even greater increase in the number of jobs lost in March. Wall Street is looking for 5k more jobs lost in March for a total loss of 656,000 jobs from 651,000.
Interestingly though amid Wall Street’s expectations are the briefing forecast which outlined an improving employment report. The briefing forecast suggests that only 640,000 jobs will be lost, that would be an improvement and as most traders are looking for: “a slowdown in the slowdown.”
I don’t think you want to hold a single position when April 3 rolls around. Its going to be a rollercoaster of a day and could be the top to this bear market rally that we’re seeing. We’ve been blinded by improving reports but the simple matter is that no economy will truly recover until unemployment drops.
Unemployment reports come only once per month so we’re immune to the report 97% of the time. But when it happens its important and its only going to be more important as the other economic reports improve.
The best way to trade it is not to trade it at all. Get out before the report because the whipsaw market is coming back.
